Australia’s economy has slowed further, with GDP growth tumbling under 2 per cent over the past year.
- Australia’s economy grew by 0.4 pc in the first quarter, taking year-on-year growth to 1.8pc, the weakest result since 2009
- Domestic consumption was weak as households spent less and saved more
- Strong government spending and commodity exports help prop up the GDP result
The economy grew at 0.4 per cent in first three months of the year, to be up 1.8 per cent over the year — the slowest growth since the September quarter in 2009.
While the quarterly figure was a step up from the moribund 0.2 per cent growth in final quarter of last year, it still fell below market expectations.
It was also much weaker than the 1 per cent growth recorded in the March quarter last year.
Excluding the impact of population growth, GDP growth was marginally negative for the third consecutive quarter, further extending the so-called GDP per capita recession.
The result was dragged down by weak household spending, slowing further from last year and up just 1.8 per cent over the year, with households cutting back on their discretionary spending, particularly in new household items, recreation and hospitality.
However, spending rose in non-discretionary, essential areas such as insurance, power and health.
Household spending overall contributed just 0.1 percentage point to growth.
The rapidly cooling residential construction sector was also a significant drag, with dwelling investment falling 2.5 per cent over the quarter having been at record levels in late 2018.
The weakening construction sector pulled 0.1 percentage points off the overall GDP result.
The main driver in the weak growth profile was government spending on such things as health, aged care and the NDIS.
Overall government spending grew by 0.8 per cent over the quarter and 5.1 over the year.
‘Rough start’ to 2019
Capital Economics analyst Ben Udy said the economy is “off to a rough start in 2019”.
“Today’s data don’t inspire much confidence in the Australian economic outlook,” My Udy said.
“And, given that the housing downturn has so far continued in 2019, we don’t think that weakness was a one-off.
“And with less growth in consumption, households seemingly chose to put any extra income towards their savings, that led the saving rate to edge up.
“We suspect this is a consequence of the decline in household wealth due to falling house prices.”
Australia is also witnessing ongoing and significant slump in productivity according to the National Accounts.
Gross value added for each hour worked in the market sector fell by 0.5 per cent in the March quarter, to be down by 0.9 per cent on the year.
IFM chief economist Alex Joiner said productivity growth has fallen for three consecutive quarters, and six out of the last nine.
“It remains unsurprising the RBA governor continues to implore the government to do more on infrastructure and in the productivity enhancing reform space,” Dr Joiner said.
Dr Joiner said the deceleration of productivity growth is hurting both the broader economy and suppressing wage growth.
“Reducing regulatory barriers, meaningful and fair tax reforms, encouraging investment in technology and investing in skills and education will deliver improved living standards over the long-term.”
Dr Joiner said while many of the reforms a long dated and come without cost, they are often difficult politically.
“If it can produce more and get greater productivity in the workplace, it will lead to workers accessing higher wage growth.”
Os textos, informações e opiniões publicados neste espaço são de total responsabilidade do(a) autor(a). Logo, não correspondem, necessariamente, ao ponto de vista do Central da Pauta.