The third edition of the Gulf Economic Monitor finds that a sustained increase in oil prices over the past two years has driven an economic recovery in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Economic growth for the GCC region is expected to reach 2% in 2018, up from negative 0.3% in 2017, thanks in part to higher oil production and a slower pace of fiscal consolidation. However, volatility in oil prices, manifest in recent sharp declines over the past month, and continued heavy dependence on energy sector, underscore the importance of staying the course of structural reforms.
The second edition of the twice-yearly Gulf Economic Monitor describes recent economic developments and finds that regional aggregate GDP growth in 2017 weakened to just 0.5%, weighed down by oil production cuts and tighter fiscal policy that took a toll on non-oil growth. Prospects, however, are for a gradual strengthening, helped by the partial recovery in energy prices, the expiration of oil production cuts after 2018, and an easing of fiscal austerity. Aggregate growth in the region is expected to strengthen to 2.1 and 2.7% in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Risks to the outlook include potential external headwinds resulting from the tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies and/or geopolitical tensions that lead to volatility in global financial markets or commodity prices.
This edition takes a look at background issues affecting the economic outlook of the region and the overview recaps the partial recovery in global oil prices over the past year, OPEC’s decision to curb oil supply, and the effects on public finances and reform initiatives as well as banking and financial sector activities. The report visits how the fall of oil prices has affected GCC countries, and what challenges lie ahead for improving non-oil-sector economic growth in the countries. It also discusses how the World Bank provides technical assistance to the GCC countries, and what lies ahead for this partnership. Data sets for each country are provided in summary tables as well as commodity price forecasts and oil production statistics.
Os textos, informações e opiniões publicados neste espaço são de total responsabilidade do(a) autor(a). Logo, não correspondem, necessariamente, ao ponto de vista do Central da Pauta.